今年初買下AT&T的SBC電信, 近日放話認為網路電話仍不成氣候. 見這個 news link (via Richard Statsny)
By Reuters (also see CNET | Visual Tool)
WASHINGTON - SBC Communications Inc. sees little challenge to its traditional telephone business from services such as Skype that offer free phone calls over the Internet, SBC‘s chief financial officer said on Thursday. "I don‘t see it as a significant threat," SBC CFO Rick Lindner said in an interview with Reuters. "The fears of what may happen there are overblown."
>>>這段話是說網路電話目前的熱潮, 包含google talk, "skypebay", 甚至yahoo + msn等, 僅是在膨風. eBay一姐梅格執行長出來說話:
"It is very clear that voice communications is moving on to the
Internet," Whitman said. "In the end, the price that anyone can provide
for voice transmission on the Net will trend toward zero."
EBay estimates Skype will produce revenues of $60 million in 2005 and more than $200 million in 2006. EBay Chairman and Chief Executive Meg Whitman told analysts on Wednesday that Skype would make its money from add-on services, not phone calls.
>>>以下是SBC Rick Lindner這位財務長可能不經過大腦的發言, 讓人相當不解:
...Lindner said while some "techies" might want to "scour the Internet and buy applications and services from a number of different providers," the mass market of customers will prefer to buy voice, video and data services from one company on one bill.
>>>錯. 大錯特錯. 這只是說給SBC股東聽的話, 或講給一般住在電信服務低度競爭的美國小鎮居民聽的. 人們發現他們的phone bill是20~30USD / month而VoIP可以有更多free minutes, they will switch, they just don't know yet.
...Lindner also said consumers will prefer to send calls over reliable networks. Most U.S. telephone network equipment is designed to go offline for no more than a few minutes per year."That‘s a big difference from simply relying on the public Internet to handle your communication needs," Lindner said.
>>>錯錯錯. Internet architechture的穩定度和效能遠比傳統電信佳. 問題通常是出在ISP提供的access服務. 而不幸地你家的ISP(ADSL)就是電信公司(也沒多少人家裡可以拉專線), 是他們把Internet服務品質搞得烏煙瘴氣. Lindner是黑白講啦!
反之台灣也好不到哪裡去. 最近看到媒體又再報導說電總要廢除一二類電信的分別. 早在四五年前葉菊蘭任交通部長時, 就已規劃台灣電信管制因新興技術(如Internet)以及WTO入會的一些檢討措施; 眼睜睜看著網路電話台灣大概吵了兩三年, 鄰近的日本不說, 韓國, 新加坡, 香港等起步比我們晚的地區, 今年起也陸續開始核發網路電話號碼. 唉! NCC沒開始就已經亂七八糟, 我看粉難寄望它來規劃台灣通訊發展未來十年的策略... T_T
